Detecting Signals of CCP Central Propaganda Behavior Using Weibo Data Related to Fukushima Nuclear Waste Water

Summary

Exploratory data analysis on Weibo posts and Weibo Hot Search entries from August 7^th to September 10^th, 2023 (archived in IORG Information Environment Archive) provides signals that CCP Central accounts have been “cooling down” the Fukushima nuclear waste water issue 3-5 days after the waste water was released.

1. General liveliness of the issue peaked on August 24^th at 6.85% platform-wide coverage and on decline afterward.
2. Continued decrease of CCP control over the issue on Weibo.
3. Coverage of CCP Central narratives over all CCP narratives on the issue has decreased while assimilation rate of CCP Central narratives have increased since 3-5 days after release date.

Additional case studies should be conducted to further evaluate the effectiveness of the methodology proposed in this article.

Data Sources

Weibo (微博) posts

• Weibo posts published by approx. 150,000 accounts that has 50,000 followers or above between August 7^th and September 10^th, 2023

• Post content must match the query {福島, 日本, 東京, 東電, 福岛, 东京, 东电} + {廢水, 處理水, 核汙水, 核污水, 核汙染水, 核污染水, 废水, 处理水}
• Data set contains approx. 46,000 posts

Weibo Hot Search (微博热搜) entries

• Weibo Hot Search hourly top 50 entries between August 7^th and September 10^th, 2023
• Entry text must match the query {廢水, 處理水, 汙水, 污水, 汙染水, 污染水, 废水, 处理水}
• Data set contains approx. 42,000 entries

1. Overall “cooling” of the Fukushima issue after coverage peaked on the water release date

5 metrics of the Fukushima waste water issue on Weibo. 1. Percentage of Fukushima-related content among all content; 2. Percentage of Fukushima-related content published by CCP-sanctioned accounts among all content; 3. Percentage of Fukushima-related content published by CCP-sanctioned accounts among all content published by CCP-sanctioned accounts; 4. Number of Fukushima-related Hot Search entries; 5. Number of new Fukushima-related narratives. Source: IORG Archive.

• Content coverage of the Fukushima (nuclear waste water) issue has decreased on Weibo since the release date (August 24^th), multiple metrics show.

2. Continued decrease of CCP “control” over Fukushima issue

2 metrics of CCP “control” over the Fukushima nuclear waste water issue on Weibo. 1. Percentage of Fukushima-related content published by CCP-sanctioned accounts among all Fukushima-related content. 2. Percentage of new Fukushima-related narratives created by CCP-sanctioned accounts among all Fukushima-related narratives. Source: IORG Archive.

• CCP content and narrative coverage show CCP “control” over the Fukushima issue has been on continuous decrease since 2-3 days before the release date.
• Coverage of Fukushima-related content published by CCP-sanctioned accounts has decreased.
• Coverage of Fukushima-related narratives created by CCP-sanctioned accounts has also decreased.

3. CCP Central is the first to engage and the first to withdraw

2 metrics of CCP Central behavior over the Fukushima nuclear waste water issue on Weibo. 1. Percentage of new Fukushima-related narratives created by CCP Central accounts among all new Fukushima-related narratives created by CCP-sanctioned accounts. 2. Percentage of posts assimilated by CCP Central narratives among all posts assimilated by CCP narratives. A post (P) is considered assimilated by an earlier post (P0) when P and P0 belong to the same narrative and P0 is the first post within the lifecycle of that narrative.

• Central narrative coverage and assimilation coverage show that the CCP Central is the first to engage with propaganda on the Fukushima issue, and also the first to withdraw.
• Coverage of narratives created by CCP Central accounts has decreased since August 29^th, 5 days after the release date. First day of zero-coverage was September 4^th (+11 days).
• Assimilation rate of narratives created by CCP Central accounts has increased since August 27^th, 3 days after the release date.