China’s division of labor on vaccine narratives against Taiwan: state’s propaganda & state media’s information manipulation

Summary

• IORG has built IORG China Watch for a more comprehensive monitoring effort of Chinese state agencies and media outlets.
• April-August, 2021, 38 vaccine narratives follow current affairs with engaging elements: kind greetings, news links, authoritative figures, and preexisting emotions.
• 14 out of 38 vaccine narratives are with CCP participation, 10 exhibit a division of labor: Chinese state agencies disseminate propaganda, state media outlets disseminate information manipulation.
• 26 out of 38 vaccine narratives contain information manipulation, 6 are with CCP participation: a minority.
• Confront information manipulation with scientific research for a healthier democracy.
• Government officials and experts are advised to avoid abusive use of “information warfare” or “cognitive warfare.”

Preface

For the past 5 months, narratives of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccines have been reverberating in Taiwan’s information space. To gain a more holistic understanding of Chinese information manipulation and propaganda against Taiwan, IORG has built IORG China Watch, collecting articles and social media posts from Chinese government agencies and state media outlets. IORG Research Method

Between April 1^st and August 31^st, 2021, IORG has collected 1,102,006 news articles and social media posts regarding COVID-19 vaccines from Facebook, Weibo, Taiwanese media (with g0v 0archive’s open data), Chinese state and state media outlets (with IORG China Watch). In this Dokidoki Alert, we are re-examining vaccine-related narratives in volumes 1-10 with additional data sources and longer time periods, offering our readers a more comprehensive analysis.

38 vaccine narratives follow current affairs with engaging elements: kind greetings, news links, authoritative figures, and preexisting emotions

38 out of a total of 52 narratives in volumes 1-10 concerns COVID-19 vaccines. Our observations are that:

• As the pandemic progressed in Taiwan, the main narratives surrounding vaccines changed from “Taiwan is short of vaccines” to “vaccines are problematic” and “don’t get vaccinated”. At the beginning of the local outbreaks in May, Taiwan was short of vaccines. At the same time, Chinese propaganda focused on promoting Chinese strength in terms of vaccines, amplifying public distrust towards Taiwan’s government, and undermining Taiwan-U.S. and Taiwan-Japan relations. When vaccine shortage in Taiwan eased, various false information, information manipulation, or conspiracy theories appeared about certain brands of vaccines being “problematic,” or “don’t get vaccinated.
• Narratives have “variants”. For example the addition of a personal greeting, a link to a news article, or some factual data. These variants of a narrative can make them more credible or personable.
• Narratives appeal to authority or emotion. Some narratives take advantage of readers’ emotions such as fear of cancer or gene modification, or preexisting distrust towards the government or news media. Others claim to quote authoritative people such as doctors, Ph.D., or “chief scientist.” These narratives can cause the readers to overlook problematic source, content, or inference, and be more willing to believe and share these messages.
  

38 vaccine narratives, 14 with CCP participation

Among the 38 vaccine narratives in volume 1-10, IORG can confirm CCP participation in 14 of them, in which 4 were initiated by Chinese government agencies and 4 by Chinese state media. That is to say, while 8 were initiated by CCP, 6 narratives were not. At the same time, there are 18 narratives in which no evidence of CCP participation were found.

10 vaccine narratives: Chinese state propaganda & state media information manipulation

Among the 38 vaccine narratives, IORG has selected 10 for further studies. Selection of each narrative is based on that one 1. can be clearly defined by a set of query conditions, and 2. has known CCP participation.

According to IORG database with the addition of IORG China Watch, these 10 narratives exhibit these characteristics between April 1^st and August 31^st, 2021, as listed below:

• 4 narratives initiated by CCP state agencies such as the Foreign Ministry (PRCFM) and Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO). All 4 are categorized as political propaganda, not information manipulation. At the same time, state agency participation was found in *none* of the 5 narratives containing information manipulation. All 5 were initiated or disseminated by Chinese state media.
• IORG presumes a division of labor among China’s vaccine narratives against Taiwan: state agencies conduct political propaganda while state media engage in information manipulation.
• This division of labor differs from observations documented in IORG’s report in 2020 (B.5). In 2020, Chinese state agencies engaged overtly in spreading manipulated information regarding the origin of COVID-19 virus. For example, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lijian Zhao (赵立坚) has repeatedly claimed that the virus originated from the U.S. using references such as the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan and influenza in the U.S. 2019-2020.
• Degree of Chinese state agencies engaging in information manipulation may vary by topic. This hypothesis requires further study.
• Among the 10 narratives listed, the percentage of content “from CCP” is higher when a Chinese state agency is involved. The same does not hold for narratives that involve Chinese state media.
• Exception: 4. “Taiwan to gift vaccines to diplomatic allies.” Percentage of content from CCP is relatively high while no state agencies involvement were found. It may be that the quick clarification made by Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry (MOFA) was able to stop this narrative from propagating.

• 7. “Japan’s AZ vaccine is not on the WHO EUL; the DPP is murdering Taiwanese people with Japanese vaccines” is one narrative that propagation via LINE messages can be clearly observed. At least 37 messages were observed between April and August. Approximately 60% of these included reference to a Chinese state media Taihai Net report.
• 10. “Taiwan-produced Medigen vaccine and Moderna are like twins from the same origin” is the only narrative out of 38 with a positive view towards Taiwan-produced vaccines. As such, it is not difficult to understand the disagreement from Chinese state media. According to IORG database, there were only 2 reports by Chinese state media, and the percentage of content from CCP is 0.11%. Opposition from the CCP may not be strong.

Let data speak: confronting information manipulation with scientific research for a healthier democracy

• 26 of 38 vaccine narratives contain information manipulation, 3 were initiated by the CCP, a total of 6 (including 3 initiated) with CCP participation, 15 with no CCP participation found.
• IORG data research shows information manipulation regarding vaccines with CCP participation is in the minority.
• In the research scope of IORG, there are very few examples of vaccine-related manipulated narratives that are initiated or participated in by Chinese state agencies.
• Some narratives originate in Taiwan and were picked up by the CCP after.
• For instance, Facebook page FACENEWS published a post on May 17^th containing narrative 8. “Taiwan uses arm purchases and semiconductor chips in exchange for American vaccines.” Article from Chinese state media Taihai Net followed suit in spreading the same narrative.

• Opinion It is an on-going fact that the CCP is attempting to invade and annex Taiwan. Taiwan’s civil society and government should not underestimate the influence of Chinese information manipulation and propaganda against Taiwan.
• Opinion The attribution, propagation, and classification of suspicious narratives shall be done with fact-based, rigorous scientific studies. Only then can we gain accurate understanding of the reality of the threat and respond with proportional strategy directed at appropriate targets at appropriate times.
• Opinion Countermeasures and capacity-building programs should be designed differently for suspicious messages from CCP and from Taiwan.
• Opinion Pointing all suspicious messages to CCP and abusing terms such as “information warfare” and “cognitive warfare” is harmful to Taiwan’s democracy. Government agencies, politicians, researchers, civil society groups, and us individual citizens should all take extra caution while staying alert.

Full version of this Dokidoki Alert is available in Taiwanese Mandarin. Please visit https://iorg.tw/da/12 for more.

Also…

• IORG Research Method
• IORG China Watch
• List of IORG Dokidoki Alert